Avoiding the Red Zone: 2015 Week 3 NFL Wagers

By Dan Urda (@DanUrda)

It has not been a good two weeks. Not for my wagers, and not for my Eagles. It is a horrible feeling; I spent all summer dealing with the abysmal Phillies and thinking “it’s ok, NFL is just around the corner.” After two weeks, my much-hyped home team is one loss away from basically being eliminated from the playoffs, and I can’t hit a wager to save my life.

My slow start to wagering this NFL season mimics the Eagle’s horrible start on the field in that it’s not just bad, its ugly, and it is hard to find bright spots for the future. In both cases, one fact needs to be reiterated: it is only two weeks. It feels like the sky is falling and the season is over, but it is just two weeks. There is plenty of time for a turnaround, and this is where the discipline that I have always preached comes in to play.

My 3-12 start is inexcusable. There is no common trend or anything in my losses; mostly just bad plays. A handful of games could have gone either way. The Giants completely blew the game last week. Steve Smith has failed to make a big play late in both games I wagered on Baltimore. But those excuses aside, the picks have been weak. That ends now.

Unfortunately there will not be a podcast this week, as Philadelphia decided that one man, albeit the Pope, visiting means that nobody else can get in or out of the city for five days, so we were unable to record our weekly banter. But maybe writing this column will bring back the success I had the last time I wrote weekly columns, during my 67% season.

New York Giants -3.5 vs Washington Redskins

I have seen a lot of cappers saying things like “I can’t lay 3.5 points with the Giants.” I have a question; why the hell not? New York has screwed themselves out of two wins. But realistically, this team is two plays away from a 2-0 start with wins vs two of the better teams in the NFC: Atlanta and Dallas. Instead, they are 0-2, which gives us a few points of line value here.

Going back to my “its just two weeks” point, it was not long ago when Washington was a dumpster fire. What, two weeks of somewhat competent play changes that perceptions for some people? Not I. This is a road game on a short week and Kirk Cousins is a human turnover machine. The Redskins have had success running the ball, but I believe NY will scheme to take that away and make Cousins beat them. He won’t.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Skins have not played teams with somebody like ODB, and frankly, not even a QB like Eli. I think this one is a rout, or if not, at least a TD win by the Giants.

St. Louis Rams +1.5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers

I love betting the Rams at home, and I love betting against the public. After dismantling the 49ers last week, the Steelers will be a public darling this week playing a team that just lost to the lowly Skins. Lots of people do not realize how different each week is from the last. The Rams were off that emotional home win against Seattle, and probably looked past Washington a bit. I think they get their act together.

Indianapolis Colts -3.5 vs Tennessee Titans

In this one, I am rolling with the public. I just can’t see the Colts falling to 0-3. Weeks 1 and 2 have got us at least 2 points of value in this one. People are so quick to write off teams like Indy and Philly after two games, and disregard talent and history. In Luck I trust in this one. 27-17 Colts.

Arizona Cardinals -6 vs San Francisco 49ers

In a nutshell, I don’t see how this game goes any differently for San Fran than last week’s game against Pittsburgh did. Both were road games against a team with a real solid pass offense. If anything, Arizona has a better defense than Pittsburgh. The 49ers in Week 1 were a mirage; this team is bad. Fade fade fade.

Remember to follow me on Twitter @DanUrda. I definitely plan on getting involved in the Seahawks this weekend. I am not really comfortable laying 14 points, but realistically that game could be 49-0 if Seattle brings it’s ‘A’ game. I will either tease it, go with a team total, or sack up and lay the points.

Follow on Twitter for that, and other game day plays, which will count for my record (player props do not). And hey, if you don’t buy that I will right this ship, by all means, fade away. If that’s the way I can make you some money, then it’s all good by me.

NFL Record Year-to-Date: 3-12

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