By Dan Urda
Week 1 was a success. While 2-1 doesn’t look sexy on paper (Editor’s Note: It doesn’t have the curves of a 3 or an 8), it is a very successful day in the betting world. So successful, in fact, that it isn’t even sustainable. My goal for the season is 58%, so I’m more than thrilled with Week 1’s results.
To start off, I will eat some crow. I don’t know if the Browns are worse than I thought they’d be (Editor’s Note: This.), or the Dolphins are better. It’s probably a combination of both, but I read that game completely wrong. Three first half interceptions from Brandon Weeden didn’t help my cause, but Miami’s defense looked very dangerous, and they may have just enough on the offensive side of the ball to win a lot more games than I thought. Only time will tell.
As poor of a selection as that was, I hit the Kansas City/Jacksonville game on the head. It wasn’t even a game, it was a bloodbath. I had penciled the Raiders in as the worst team in football but I may have been wrong. In fact, while everyone else is psyched for the Manning Bowl this weekend, I’m actually pretty intrigued by the Bridgewater Bowl. Jacksonville at Oakland: does either team want to win? The loser of this game may likely end up with the number 1 pick in next year’s draft and come away with a franchise quarterback. I would love to see both teams blatantly tank, and just trade interceptions the entire game. How entertaining would that be? Note: while I won’t touch this game betting-wise, I do think the Raiders defense is a sneaky fantasy play for those of you who use a different defense every week.
The moneyline parlay hit, despite the Patriots and Colts taking a few years off of my life by almost losing to inferior opponents. But a win is a win, and I’ll take it any day of the week (or any Sunday, Monday, or Thursday to be more specific).
On to week 2, where we have four plays, eliminating the potential for another 2-1 week; but heck, let’s go 3-1 this time!
Week 2 Picks
Buffalo Bills +3 vs. Carolina
This play is a combination of my being impressed by the Bills (E.J. Manuel in particular), and unimpressed by Carolina. I understand that the Panthers played a tough Seattle defense, but it’s not like they were in Seattle. On the road, the Seahawks defense isn’t as ferocious. Overall, I just don’t like this Panthers team. They never play up to the level their talent suggests they should be on. They have an incumbent coach and the players don’t play with a lot of energy. I think the Bills will have a ton of energy with the home crowd. There is a lot of excitement over the fact that the Bills might have their first real quarterback since Drew Bledsoe, and in this spot, I think they win this game straight up. But to be safe, gimme the points!
Detroit Lions -1.5 @ Arizona
I’m kind of in on the Lions this year. The team has looked great, from their walloping of New England in the third preseason game (the only one that means a thing) to their opening weekend debut in which they destroyed Minnesota. Minnesota isn’t great, but they were a playoff team last year, and the game wasn’t even as close as the score says. I don’t hate the Cardinals and I know that it is hard to go into any West Coast team’s stadium and win, but I think this line would be appropriate if it were last season’s Lions team going into Zona. This team is much better. Ill roll with the squares on this one, and hopefully I won’t regret it.
Redskins/Packers over 49.5
No long write-up here. I like both offenses and am iffy on both defenses. That’s really all I got. But when I trust both quarterbacks in a game, I will take the over, especially as long as the NFL continues to be a quarterback’s league. (Both teams were well over this total in Week 1, I’m on board.)
Moneyline Parlay: Houston Texans, Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals +120
This play contains three playoff-caliber teams all making their home debuts, with two of them coming off opening-week losses. None of the opponents scare me, particularly on the road (due to Atlanta’s injuries, I’d hesitate to bet against the Rams if this game were in St. Louis, but at home the Falcons should find a way to win).
That’s it for this week. Enjoy the games, and remember never to bet too much that losing would result in your inability to do so (Editor’s Note: We’re all about responsible wagering here at Philly Fast Break).
NFL Record Year-to-Date: 2-1
Below are the remaining entries for #PhillyFastBreakSurvivor and everyone’s picks for Week 2.